The current ifo business climate
With its prediction for 2012 the ifo institute continues the positive trend of the previous year. For Germany's industrial economy the ifo business climate has further improved in December 2011 after it had already stabilized during the previous month. The commercial expectations of companies have subsequently improved for a second time. The current business situation has been assessed as consistently favourable.
Also in the main building trade the business climate has brightened even further. The questioned building contractors report of a slightly more favourable business situation than in November 2011 and besides are more hopeful in respect of the commercial development for the next six months.
The main federation of the German building industry considers a sales growth for the German main building trade of 2.5 per cent in nominal terms, 1 per cent in real terms to be realistic. This means a significant reduction compared to the previous year. But the turnovers in 2011 had increased significantly by 9.5 per cent in nominal terms, 6.5 per cent in real terms like they had not done since 1994.
Distinct profit for the housing trade
Especially the housing trade will profit from the crisis of the capital markets in 2012. The rise in completions in the flat building trade would expect an increase in housing sales by as much as 6 per cent in nominal terms compared to 14 per cent in the previous year.
Especially the construction of flats is significantly rising according to the country's building societies. After an increase in planning permissions of 20 per cent in the previous year compared to 2010 the LBS association director Hartwig Hamm prognosticates a further increase of 5 per cent to reach a number of 250,000 planning permissions in 2012.
According to the ifo long term forecast of 2011 this positive trend in flat construction will continue and the overall construction volume in Germany will increase moderately due to rising demand.
The forecast for the economic construction however, for which a 3 per cent increase in turnover was expected, looks more uncertain. In public construction losses of 2.5 per cent are expected due to expired programs of economic measures and the national debt crisis.
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